A Championship Week primer for Louisville fans
Are the Cards in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament? What has to happen to ensure a berth? Answers to those questions and much more to start your week.
OK, so it should really be Championship Weeks instead of Championship Week, with a handful of teams already punching their NCAA Tournament tickets before the start of this week’s onslaught of hoops. Nevertheless, we persist, and this is Championship Week.
So, put on a pot of coffee, sharpen your pencils and get ready for the madness. We’ve waited forever for this feeling to come back after no tournament last year. Soak it in for all it’s worth. Next Monday, I’ll send out a list of teams I like to cause good trouble in the Big Dance.
Here is this week’s table-setter for where Louisville stands in its pursuit of an NCAA Tournament berth. Before we get to it …
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OK, let’s go!
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What’re some key attributes of Louisville’s resume to watch?
As I mentioned in previous newsletters, this is my replica of what Selection Committee members actually see on their computers when evaluating Louisville and other NCAA Tournament contenders.
Using BracketMatrix.com’s collection of every serious bracket projection on the internet, Louisville is 4-5 against other projected NCAA Tournament teams. Committee members over the years have discussed that specific record as an important factor on several occasions. It could help Louisville overcome a disappointing 1-5 mark in Quadrant 1 games.
The computer numbers, which the committee may need to rely on more than ever before, are a mixed bag. The NET, the most important ranking, isn’t great for the Cards. ESPN’s Strength of Record, the Kevin Pauga Index and the Jeff Sagarin Ratings are a bit more favorable. Strength of schedule is above average but nothing extraordinary. Which goes back to that record vs. NCAA Tournament teams and why it could be a savior.
What does the ACC Tournament look like for Louisville?
I’ll be honest: I don’t love this setup for the Cards. Worst of all is FSU sitting in that quarterfinal on Thursday. For a number of reasons, that matchup just doesn’t go well for Louisville.
But also of concern: a third game against Duke. I know, I know: Louisville swept ‘em. Beating a team three times in one season, though, is a challenging task, especially when Duke might be trying to play its way into the NCAA Tournament. Win that Wednesday game, and Louisville can dab the brow and assume it’s a lock for a tourney bid. Lose it, and Louisville still probably gets into the 68-team tournament field, but the rest of the week could get a little dicey.
Who are Louisville’s competitors for an NCAA Tournament bid?
A potpourri of kinda meh Power Five teams — and mid-majors none of the big boys would schedule that now have to fight for respect from the committee.
Here’s a screenshot of similar resumes lined up in the CBS Sports’ bubble monitor. Only Drake has the same number of Quadrant 1 wins as Louisville. Add Quadrant 1/2 games, though, and Louisville considerably improves its outlook, moving to 7-5. Teams like Colorado State (3-5), Wichita State (4-4) and Boise State (4-6) might have a tougher time if committee members lump Quadrant 1 and 2 records together. You just know some team everyone hates is going to get in over 25-4 Drake. Brace yourselves for that.
What about ACC teams Louisville could be battling for an NCAA Tournament spot?
This is a smaller group, but look at Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Syracuse, plus NC State, to a lesser extent.
Duke is on the outside looking in at the moment, which adds flavor to that potential Wednesday matchup. The Blue Devils have two Quadrant 1 victories and are 6-9 (nice) in Quadrant 1 and 2 games. But they also have middling computer numbers, some bad losses and, worst of all, a .500 record. They need to win three games in Greensboro — maybe four.
Georgia Tech and North Carolina have almost identical resumes to Louisville, with slightly better NET numbers, and I think all three get in. Tech’s weak nonconference results/schedule would’ve been a much bigger problem had the Jackets not gone 11-6 in the ACC.
Syracuse is again on the bubble and water is wet. The computers actually like the Orange a little more than Louisville, but they’re 2-7 on the road and only have one Quadrant 1 win — at NC State, a long-shot bubble team. That hurts. Feels like ‘Cuse has to win Wednesday and probably Thursday to get in. NC State definitely has to make a run in Greensboro.
What Louisville fans should root for
Beat Duke and your team is almost certainly dancing.
Beyond that, you want Duke to win Tuesday. Notre Dame making a little noise could help Louisville’s home win over the Irish move to Quadrant 2 status. Oh, and keep rooting for Josh Pastner and Georgia Tech. If the Jackets beat Clemson and someone else solid in the semifinals, Louisville’s home win vs. Georgia Tech could end up as a Quadrant 1 win. Could late movement on the resume help the Cards? I’d imagine the committee debates bubble teams right down to the wire on Saturday and into Sunday, so … maybe.
What Louisville fans should root against
At this point, losing. A loss to Duke this week might end up as a Quadrant 1 loss if Duke improves its NET rating, but that might not matter as much as Louisville running out of opportunities to improve its profile. That is what this week is all about: Stay alive and keep bolstering the resume. You never want to be the team hoping someone else helps you out.
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